So, I’ve been meaning to start writing a weekly post for ages. Life has kept getting in the way. However, the thing that has been dominating my attention is now the very thing that needs discussion. We’re all sharing in some remarkably uncertain times and I have a vantage I’d like to share. It matters.
I’ve been in building construction for quite some time. 44 years as a designer with 27 of them as a builder as well. Now I just design. As I’ve collected birthdays, I’ve grown to really enjoy air conditioning. So, I’m not a total wheezer but let’s say, I’m very youthful in my heart and mind. Heck, I’m not asking you to play tennis, just read something that may help your understanding of where we are. Hopefully, as we age, we can actually learn something and, better yet, share it with folks if they’re inclined to listen. My generation lived through a decade of 15% mortgage interest. We survived and some even thrived. The nation saw a big dip in building in the early 90’s and me and countless colleagues enjoyed sweeping layoffs. It wasn’t a hoot but we survived and some even thrived. Regardless of your political bent, the Clinton era saw the longest stretch of non-wartime prosperity in the history of the nation. Some time later we saw the effective collapse of the housing market; a period we’ve never effectively recovered from. Then came Covid. This was the planet’s first real shot across the bow of humanity. The pandemic set off a series of cascade failures that exploited fractures in the system that had been present for a decade or longer. So, here we are. There is a massive shortage of affordable housing. We have an overwhelming shortage of skilled labor and a wage structure that doesn’t attract new blood. Interest is somewhat elevated but construction costs are off the chart. The combo is brutal. In some markets, like the Atlanta Metro, a lateral move in housing is just not possible. Entire new subdivisions are being built for….wait for it….rental only! Getting equity in America, moreover, keeping it if you have it, is a challenge at best.
So, you might ask, why “Canaries and Bookends”? Let’s start with ‘Canaries’ part. Everybody has heard the adage about the Canary in the Coal Mine. As cruel as it may seem, canaries were used to monitor that the air deep underground was sufficient to sustain the miners. If the canary falls off the perch, it might be wise to bolt. Canaries aren’t supposed to look like Smurfs and neither are we. When it comes to the economy I’ve found that we, architects and designers, are the canaries in the coal mine. Primarily those in the residential side of the building world. We tend to see the good and the bad well in advance of most people. I haven’t fallen off the perch yet but, I’m grippin’ that puppy with everything I’ve got. When housing is your bread and butter, you pay attention. You begin to see patterns and possibilities. You really get a great look into the American state of mind. If you stare intently for a minute, you can also see hope and potential paths to a better outcome. The solution lies within the homeowner, or any person who desires to be one. To that end, we have some thoughts that may interest you. So much for the canary metaphor. I’d like to be your canary before I look like a bluejay.
So, what about the “Bookends” part? The “we” I’ve been using includes my daughter whom I affectionately call Ralph. She’s in practice with me. This is a strong woman in what has traditionally been a man’s industry. She has her undergraduate degree in Interior Design and a Masters in Architecture. We’ve been in practice together going on 9 years now. There has been no bloodshed! Trust me, that’s saying something. The point is that I’m a Boomer and I have a perspective colored by a different life experience. She’s a Millennial. There is 26 years between us. Bookends. She will be writing a weekly post from her perspective as a designer and married mother. So, I encourage you to watch this space. We’ll endeavor to stay on top of publishing if you’ll endeavor to check in from time to time. Together, I hope we can better navigate the uncertainty and maybe, just maybe, make things a little better for us and the next generation. Our success as a nation lies in the people and the empowerment of the people through knowledge.
See ya next week. It’s gonna be a hoot.
